📉 The 4th Axiom: Why You Should Stop Listening to Forecasts

In the ever-humming world of financial markets, newsrooms, and economic panels, there’s a constant obsession with forecasts. Predictions. Projections. But here’s a brutal truth we often ignore:

Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future — however dimly.

This isn’t cynicism. It’s realism.

Nobody Knows What’s Coming

Let’s admit it: nobody has the faintest idea of what’s going to happen next year — or even next week. If you truly hope to get anywhere as a speculator or investor, you must get out of the habit of listening to forecasts.

“It is of utmost importance that you never take economists, market advisors, or other financial oracles seriously.”

Yes, they speak with confidence. They produce reports. They wear suits. But their success rate? Often no better than chance.

The Prediction Fallacy

Here’s how it works:

You make 25 predictions, and the one that comes true is the one you talk about. The others? Quietly forgotten. Markets are full of this noise.

“Jeane Dixon’s record, I found it to be no better than that of an ordinary man or woman making guesses.”

This selective memory creates the illusion of foresight — a dangerous mirage for investors and decision-makers alike.

The Honest Investor’s Confession

Personally, I’ve never made any serious attempt to read the future. Sure, I wonder about it like everyone else. But I’ve never claimed to have foresight.

“Indeed, I have just spent many pages saying it can’t be done.”

And if you’re still clinging to that hope — that maybe someone out there can — consider this:

“Human events absolutely cannot be predicted, by any method, by anybody.”

Let that sink in.

The Colossal Engine of Emotion

Why can’t financial predictions be trusted?

Because the stock market is not a machine of logic. It’s a colossal engine of human emotion. And human behavior doesn’t follow formulas. No spreadsheet, AI model, or Nobel Prize-winning economist can account for it accurately — not over time, not consistently.

So the next time someone tells you where the market is going, smile politely — and walk the other way.

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